Capital Region Full-Lease Market Imbalance Worsens…Gyeonggi Province Full-Lease Supply-Demand Index Hits 110.7, Highest in Over 5 Years

The capital region full-lease market is experiencing worsening scarcity of listings.

According to the Korea Real Estate Board on the 15th, Gyeonggi Province's full-lease supply-demand index stood at 110.7 as of the second week of November. This marks the highest figure in 5 years and 3 months since the first week of August 2021 (111.3), when the full-lease shortage was most severe. The full-lease supply-demand index uses 100 as a baseline, with higher figures indicating that demand for full-lease housing exceeds the supply of listings.

Listing Scarcity Spreads to Gyeonggi Periphery…West Coast Region at Peak 117.0

By region within Gyeonggi Province, the West Coast Zone (Bucheon·Ansan·Siheung·Gwangmyeong·Hwaseong·Osan·Pyeongtaek) recorded the highest index at 117.0, followed by Gyeongbu Zone 1 (Gwacheon·Anyang·Seongnam·Gunpo·Uiwang) at 116.2, and East Zone 1 (Namyangju·Guri·Hanam·Gwangju) at 111.7. Notably, the Gyeongui Zone (Gimpo·Goyang·Paju), which had shown a supply surplus at 91.1 in the first week of January this year, surged to 108.5, indicating that excess demand has spread to the outer regions of Gyeonggi Province.

Tenant Demand Squeezed Out from Seoul…Incheon and Capital Region Face Supply Imbalance

Incheon and Seoul also show clear listing shortage phenomena. Incheon, where price hike pressures are relatively weaker, recorded a full-lease supply-demand index of 110.4 in the second week of November. Seoul peaked at 128.1 in the fourth week of July but has slightly declined; however, in the second week of November it still showed 120.2, with demand significantly outpacing supply. Within Seoul, supply-demand imbalances were pronounced in the Southwest Zone (125.9) and Northeast Zone (123.0), where mid-to-lower-priced housing is concentrated.

Experts analyze that with limited new full-lease inventory flowing into the market, tenant demand from Seoul—feeling the burden of housing costs—is being displaced toward relatively cheaper outer areas, Gyeonggi Province, and Incheon, thereby intensifying supply-demand imbalances.

Government: "Full and Partial-Lease Listings Still Insufficient…Supply Measures to Proceed Uninterrupted"

Meanwhile, the government is focusing on market stabilization through expanded supply amid the temperature gap between the sale market and the full-lease market. On the 13th, during the government's regular housing supply briefing, officials cited price declines in Seoul's Gangnam three districts and increased full and partial-lease listings, diagnosing that downward market stabilization indicators are expanding. A Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport official stated, "While full and partial-lease listings are increasing to a certain extent, the level remains insufficient compared to the past," and added, "We will proceed without disruption to the move-ins of 44,000 households in the capital region through the first quarter of next year and the supply of public housing according to the 'Housing Stability Plan' announced in September."